Today what happened with crypto is beyond manipulated.
Imagine you play a poker and the deck is rigged (bitmex, bitfinex, big exchanges except Binance afaik), the players have aces up their sleeves (small groups of whales still control 90% of the coins), and if everything fails, you play at their territory and they can change the rules of the game mid way.
This move today was not forseen, but crying over spilled milk makes no sense, and if we don't learn something from it it becomes an expensive lesson that WILL repeat.
First, what we did right:
We used stops, so we didn't get liquidated.
We respected stops, so we didn't fomo.
We didn't re-enter positions on fomo.
What we did wrong? I really don't know.
This was impossible to predict, these are the only signs I notice that might help in the future:
1) we stayed for longer time frame at the lowest wick expected territory 6212-6200 - for more than 3 hours.
2) longs were big on bitfinex
If we stretch it:
3) BCH is designed to be competitor of BTC, the biggest moves are happening now and mining wars are going on... btc got reduced hash rate and that could give us a red flag, but even in the most stretched scenario - it doesn't make it no trade zone - the btc, as it's still the king.
So we must understand, sometimes we do everything good, but we just accepted this game.
The whole crypto game depends on our belief in bitcoin. The value of bitcoin is highly manipulated. It makes it highly rewarding, but also it makes it highly risky at the same time. I am bullish on bitcoin, I can't fucking imagine that on 9th of December, and 10th and 11th we won't be seeing big fat green candles...
However, what's the right moment for entry... unfortunately, at leveraged position I can't tell you. For non leveraged it is - just hold.
What if you hold alts?
My highest recommendation is NOT to sell any now. With presupposition of Bitcoin being bullish and perspective asset, selling now might mean we sold too low.
What is my hunch what happened?
A group of fat btc wallets are preparing the territory for the institutional investments. Whether it's their grey off-the-books money, these dumps are made by these wallets losing money with market selling through the walls... so they did it for a reason. And liquidity wasn't the main one, as liquidity was fully reached at 6200... I think it prepared the entry for someone to enter with bigger chunk and de-motivating retail (us) investors to be willing to sell btc.
Lower price is not important here, it's taking away people's hope, and reason for holding.
So let's show them we won't give up hope. Yes, it's early days of bitcoin, but it survived ten harder years than this one... we are holding, and let them sweat to get it if they want it.
With you in dips and pumps!