1. The Fractal of 2 bearish engulfing candles followed by a little volume indecision / possible...
2. Closing price print below 8200 USD has marked that bears are in full control. The lowest closing price 1W in 2018.
3. Little to no development over the week - repeated tests of 50MA 1W by bears, but no success to break it. 50MA has proved itself to be a strong support.
4. Little volume on the 1W candle - inside indecision doji. This candle has 3 signs in itself that next week shall resume with a clear increase in volatility.
5. 8EMA remains untested for 4 weeks, has been a resistance prior.
6. Shorts have made an ATH near 50MA 1W.
7. Every previous 'momentum' trendline has been violated.
8. No significant level / support turned resistance can be found until 3000 USD level.
Overview of 1W: The 'extreme low' of 5900 USD (February 6th low) is still 'the low' of 2018, but if bulls won't manage to pull through to above 8200 USD soon, the greater low is just a question of time.
The general rule is that the price has to establish 'a higher low', followed by 'a higher high' to consider a possible reversal in a bear market. Until a 'higher high' is established, any argument about bullish reversal would be premature. 50MA provided a solid bounce for BTC, but given the violation of a longer standing dynamic and static supports on 1M Timeframe its 3rd test should come shortly. If the breach of 50MA on 1W takes place - intraday low of 5900 USD will be easily breached and the real bear market with low liquidity shall commence.
Starting Monday, 9th of April, aggressive traders will use the break of 6800 USD - the break of this week's candle's low as a clear signal to short with stops set at a previous swing high ~ 7400 USD. More conservative traders will enter a short position once 4H candles will print a closing price below 1W 50MA ~ 6662 USD. The classic target would be around the discussed prior 4320 USD zone. This is a trade based on a signal provided by 1W candle, be informed that the trade may need time to transpire and achieve the proposed target. The possible pathway and 'take profit' levels will be discussed in the latter part of the report.