'I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have' - Thomas Jefferson

Right now, many quit. Rightfully so. Crypto might die completely, although I don't believe in that. However, I'm one persistent mofo.

The good thing for my followers is in early Jan, I told everyone who was in crypto with borrowed money to quit - loudly and clearly.

The odds are you are in with the money you can afford to lose... and more importantly, use.

'use' to make something amazing with it if you succeed.

But if you do succeed, succeed greatly!

I was never interested in stocks. 10-20% gains and in 10 years you are rich... is not my style.

I rather fail and sweat and risk... but if I succeed... that I do so great, beyond wildest expectations of stock-investor mentality.

In my previous business I was a slow starter.. I worked through unimaginable challenges... that sometimes it was even funny of how 'bad luck' can strike...

but then when success came, I bought a Lambo, a house, a nightclub with two months earnings!

And the Lambo taught me... that

Most Men Never Live

I was not the only guy with Lambo in town - but I was the only one driving a dog in it!

I had a crazy, biting, big breed 3-month puppy... that was the best dog in the world for me, I shit you not.

It was so hyperactive mofo that he would bite my shoes, bark, piss on the floor, ... everything... but when I brought back a smoking hot chick that worked as a hostess in my club... a nice round bubbly ass, tight, petite submissive nympho.. my dog went quiet and peaceful the moment I started...  .. playing chess with her! 

That moment I knew it - this dog is for me!

And since then we were nonseparable friends. We both are loyal. Me loyal as a dog and he - the dog.

Then I saw one idiot with Lambo who would go into some city with a truck, carrying Lambo, got it down, polish it - ride it around the city, then pack it up again, transport it back... 

the Lambo owned him!

I said to myself, the moment it starts being a burden for me - I'm selling that thing.

So I believe I had more fun with it than most guys worrying about it ever do.

I never drove one single gold digger in it - though I had epic opportunities!

Later I crashed it (also an epic story, not so epic crash) -- light crash, 50 miles from the destination where I was about to sell it anyway.

The guys couldn't get it why I sold it - 
First of all, if you haven't driven a supercar, here's a hint... it's shakey.
Second, whenever, wherever you leave it, anywhere.. you know there is people around it.

The reason I sold it though - was to punish myself.

After years spent trying to make my business successul, and years of miserable failures, I finally did it - I made it so big that we were making more than Google per employee!  Not many employees though. Me doing most of the work.

I got lazy, I was partying too much with easy chicks spending hard money... and that was the first time I felt depressed.

For the first time, in my life... I felt depressed when I had the most and bought it all.

Two years have passed and I couldn't get myself to get back to work. I didn't want it anymore. I couldn't go back doing the same thing that I brought to the top in the industry. I ended up doing a pretty epic thing that I'll feel good for (or stupid) in the many years to come - I GAVE it to our young and eager manager and to my partner. No money. Just gave it.

I went trading.

Crypto... and I got quite fast quite good at it. Got the good guys around it... and got good luck with it.

Then Blockchain Whispers came to life.

And again the same story... the moment I started with Blockchain Whispers, the bear times began.. dipping and dipping, neverending dip.

But I enjoy every second of it... because I see loud guys who I wanted to outperform, asking around about 'Blockchain Whispers guy'... many disappearing... and even those not disappearing, they are not doing anything now... while me... 

Blockchain Whispers Is In FULL THROTTLE DEVELOPMENT!

I am building more for you than you can imagine.

You will soon see some of the results.

So many surprises... and completely ready to fail!

If crypto disappears, I'll know I built something epic I am proud of.
If crypto succeeds - well Blockchain Whispers will be the first and the most useful resource for trader's edge on the planet. You will soon see what I am bringing to you from fundamental's side of things. You'll not be able to ignore it during your trading days.

I am so excited, because good luck or bad luck, you never know.. I am grateful I got this 'time' to build everything properly... while everyone else is lazy.

I am not quitting. I am evolving. And you are with me.

Together, we will succeed.. and weak hands will disappear.

I do agree that for most of my followers, now is not a good time for trading. I am applying for our premium group a crisis-trading protocol... the one that gives us a chance to be successful even in most bearish times... and that particularly isn't for everyone as it requires discipline. 

The Ten Trade Challenge will prove whether we are successful or even we should stop trading for a while... we are on the fourth trade currently... as soon as the ten are done, I'll inform you here.

In the meantime, this is the plan:

Make Blockchain Whispers the most valuable, most important website for crypto trading edge. Check - in progress!

Keep Blockchain Whispers the most accurate crypto signals website on the planet - in progress (Ten Trade Challenge active!)

Prepare to lead my Blockchain Whispers followers to success and glory beyond ordinary in case bitcoin doesn't fall below $1300 levels (last line of defense!)... check check!

Even if the shit does happen, and crypto gets rekt and all gets rekt... I'll still be biting, pushing, building... until our Blockchain Whispers edge is so great that we can transfer it across markets, across platforms... and I'll take you with me, should you want it.

There is no fun in mediocrity. We either do it, or we don't. And there is no stopping in between.

For now, if you're not premium, my advice is save money, spectate, enjoy life, go bang some Natashas (that could be contradictory to saving money though!)

If you're in premium, please follow ONLY the Ten Trade Challenge - because this is adjusted for crisis and it's our best game ever.

This is a quite lengthy update of the Blockchain Whispers' work in progress.

This is a call for you to believe. It will be a quite interesting journey if you're in it with your "make-dream-happen" money. If you're in with a borrowed money - then my friend, the odds are really good that you're rekt and that you should sell regardless of how we all think it should go back to 20k.

Be advised, here, you'll know in time, as soon as I know, any developments, and important facts about crypto. Free. Public. Always.

And since you read so far - something from Mr. Y labs - the odds are greater by the day that the ETF will be denied. Bitcoin as such volatile asset doesn't offer trading safety, accountability or storage value beyond strong speculation.

This might be (and probably is) - the bank's deep pocket war on crypto. Banks do keep in pocket governments, and why would SEC or anything else be different. The moment their slow, lazy but rich asses got their grasp around Bitcoin posing a danger to them... their systems of power came to work to bring it below it's support - 1st bringing the ability to short it, second bringing big money in to make the market, and third shorting it...

I don't know how this will end - bitcoin was NOT supposed to fall below 5800 levels, as it is not useful for the store-of-value concept. However, there still is hope. And hope is you, me, and the people.

Right now, the big hope also is the black market. Grey market. They will use bitcoin regardless... Chinese riches take money out of China with crypto.

This will not stop.

And whatever happens, I will not sell my bitcoin. Except to buy a lambo. Or a dog food. Depends on the price and what comes first.

Your friend,
D

Pantera Capital Hedge Fund, by many the best fund lost until OCT around 73% of the portfolio according to cryptoglobe.com.
Now is December, and a bunch more shakeouts... I wouldn't be surprised the number is in the 90% neighborhood. 

Bitmain - the gigant whale miner... lost $750 million in q3... q4 seems even worse.

Galaxy Digital lost hundreds of millions...

And you think us retail traders have a chance?

I am now focusing with my premiums on the Ten Trade Challenge... trading fully professionally, portfolio management, with the best analysis my team has and seeing if we have any edge in this market.

If we don't, we will pull out. Mr. Y already said he is out, alts are dead, until the 2020.

For me, it doesn't work like that - I don't quit. So I will use this time to develop amazing things at Blockchain Whispers, so that once again it becomes tradeable, that we enter it.

This is not a quitting message. I am here. I am trading. I am developing.

This is a friendly message that if you see things not going well for you this year, you are not alone, and it might be wise to spectate for a while.

Yours in bears and bulls,
D

P.S. You will see badass developments soon... I expect it to be under a month from now.
P.P.S. I am giving our best in The Ten Trade Challenge. The Outcome Of That Will Determine How, And When We Continue Trading. For now we did three trades, seven more to go. Hand holding members with portfolio management and all. Cheers!

two hours ago the mining was adjusted to new difficulty: -15%!

It means miners are quitting, less mining out there.

So if this started, it is only natural so it finishes... 

... the logical destination is capitulation. When the mass, the crowd, most, start believing there is no more hope for bitcoin, forgets it, etc.

Then I wish you remember to remember it and buy some cheap and forget about it while remembering bitcoin highs and how they will be one day reached and exceeded.

Until then... just remember to forget it.

Cheers!

I'll let you in on a secret, but shh... okay?

Good.

[whispers]: we are developing something brutal behind the scenes.. for a while now, and you know how fast I am at creating things. If this takes time, you can only guess how badass it will be.

It will give you the fundamentals edge over anybody in crypto.

And it won't cost you anything.

Stay tuned (need less than a month now, to wrap it!)

D

This is major step in regulation and controlling of cryptocurrency:

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm556

I don't say it's bad - becase this is a tool how the government can control crime yet allow us to remain private. But this is regardless the MAJOR FUD because this, as any other power, can be strongly misused.

Where is the end?

criminals?
non-registered addresses?
non-tax payers?
not-government approved addresses?

Where's the end?

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY for the first time put two bitcoin wallets on the blacklist, of some Iranian scammers who were doing ransomware and earned about $25 million with it.

The only fear is - what is next?

Get this right and your whole involvement in crypto starts to make sense.

Before we get into the formula, get this - if your WIN RATIO is 12%, it means that you can go to the bank... borrow 1 million dollars for 6% and profit 6% of off a million of someone else's money!

Knowing this formula enables you to quickly and easily determine if crypto is the right for you

(%w x aw) - (%l x al) = WIN RATIO
%w = percentage of wins
aw = average win size

%l = percentage of losses
al = average loss size

do it over the 100 trades and you have a pretty decent idea of how you're doing.

Many beginning traders fail to do proper risk to reward.
It is when you risk one dollar to get 2 or more, versus when you risk one to get +0.5

Many intermediate losers miss great EDGE trades just because they read somewhere risk to reward should be greater than 1:1

This is a lesson I just recently learned. I have asked a top trader why is his R:R infavorable and he answered to me quite simply: "the odds of it going up and down is not the same".

If you know the reasons it should go up and have edge good enough, you can get 4 times in a row "heads" before you get tails... especially if the coin is 'magnetized' like many things still in crypto are.

So my friend, calculate your winning edge and feel free to share it in the comments below.
Answering this helps you determine what type of crypto investor you should be: a day trader or a hodl-er.

Cheers!

D

Bitcoin in 2019

Technological developments

Scaling Of Bitcoin

There are two different approaches to tackle Bitcoins scalability problems, on-chain, and off-chain scaling. On-chain scaling means increasing the block size or making the transaction data leaner. An increased block size is not a good idea, because it will heavily favor centralization of full nodes. Fewer and fewer nodes can participate in the network because the hardware requirements of running a full-node would skyrocket with increased block size. Good on-chain scaling solutions are SegWit (Segregated Witness), which was implemented successfully on 24. August 2017.

Another good on-chain scaling solution is the implementation of Schnorr Signatures.

Schnorr Signatures help Bitcoin to scale on-chain and are additionally improving privacy. The reduce on-chain transaction size, enable faster validation of transactions and improve the privacy of multi-signature wallets. It works by aggregating multiple signatures into one signature, which leads to reduced transaction size.

For example, our previous 3 of 4 scriptSig held 3 different DER formatted signatures (one for each participant), if we use Schnorr Signatures the unlocking script would simply have 1 signature representing an aggregate of each participants signature.

This technique also increases privacy because signatures in multi-party wallets would look like any other, these multi-party transactions will be indistinguishable from normal transactions. Schnorr Signatures are expected to reduce the use of storage and bandwidth by at least 25%, which is a huge efficiency gain.

The Lightning Network is an off-chain scaling solution. It is a Layer2 application that operates on top of the Bitcoin blockchain.

Layer2 solutions are the most promising scalability solutions because they operate on a layer above the traditional blockchain.

Lightning uses smart contracts to form a decentralized network which is anchored into the Bitcoin blockchain. This enables instant payments across the network at high volume and high speed. The underlying concept is called „Bidirectional Payment Channels“. First, two participants create a ledger entry on the Bitcoin blockchain, this requires all participants to sign off on any spending of funds. 

The next step is that both users create transactions which are credited to the ledger entry, but not get broadcasted to the Bitcoin blockchain. The final balanced gets settled on the Bitcoin blockchain when the payment channel is closed. So two users can send each other payments back and forth using the Lightning Network, these transactions are recorded on a separate balance and the final balance will be attached to the blockchain as soon as the channel is closed.

With this technology, it is possible to facilitate transactions off-chain without limitations. Security is given because any participant can close the channel at any time and get the final balance recorded tot he blockchain.

The Lightning Network was launched on 15th March 2018 and is growing at a spectacular rate.
This technology allows for payments that are settled in seconds and cost a fractal of a cent.

Bitcoin Privacy

MimbleWimble is a proposal for blockchain that could be implemented as a sidechain attached to Bitcoin.

It works with concepts like Confidential Transactions and "one-way aggregate signatures" (OWAS) to allow private transactions and better scalability. With Mimblewimble, the receiver generates the blinding factor which is used to prove ownership of BTC. They use "excess value" for this, which is the difference between the inputs and outputs. It is basically a set of random numbers that ensures that only the user who generated the blinding factor (e.g. the receiver) can spend the Bitcoins.

Mimblewimble also alters the look of transactions with the technique that blocks will only have lists of new inputs, new outputs, and signatures which are created from the excess value. These values are encrypted, but nodes can verify that no Bitcoins are being created or destroyed. The excess value signatures will then prove that all the transactions are valid since they only add up if the whole transaction does.

This ensures that neither values or the destination of the transactions are known because all inputs and outputs are all contained in one block and are not separated. This protocol could be incorporated into Bitcoin in the near future or exist as an Altcoin.

Bitcoin Sidechains

Bitcoin sidechains are called Drivechains and the development makes rapid progress. Sidechains are separate blockchains that are connected to the mother-chain (Bitcoin). The concept was first introduced in 2014 with the release of this paper:
https://blockstream.com/sidechains.pdf

The paper discussed “pegged sidechains, which enables bitcoins and other ledger assets to be transferred between multiple blockchains.” It also introduced the concept of pegged sidechains, defining the two-way peg which is the technical underpinning pegged sidechains. The two-way peg is a method to transfer BTC from the main chain into the sidechain and back. It works like this: when assets are transferred from mainchain to sidechain, no BTC is actually “transferred” between blockchains.

If we transact between the main chain and the sidechain, the desired amount of BTC is blocked on the main chain and the same amount of BTC is released on the sidechain. This works in both directions. An added security protocol ensures that the same Bitcoins are not blocked on both chains simultaneously.

Paul Sztorc, the creator of Bitcoin Hivemind created a way to implement sidechains. He is the creator of Drivechain. Drivechain incentives miners to be „consensus proxies“. Drivechains also use the two-way pegs (2WP) model.

There are small differences, however. If someone transfers BTC from the main-chain to the sidechain, the BTC gets locked to a unique P2SH address. The sidechain client then watches the main chain and observes when the coin transfer takes place into the sidechains. The client waits till the funds are locked on the main chain and then (after a security waiting period) releases the BTC on the sidechain.

Drivechain uses the concept of „merged mining“ for this procedure. This is a new method which leverages game theory for mining Drivechain. The involved miners work on main chain and sidechain in parallel. The first block that is hashed and attached tot he motherchain ist he Drivechain. The hash of this block is put into the coinbase transaction of the Bitcoin block and then overlooked by the Bitcoin network.

If the Bitcoin difficulty is reached, the block is accumulated and sent out to the network's nodes. Then the Drivechain block is put together with all the information from the associated Bitcoin Block. This gives Drivechain a high amount of Security because it is anchored into the Bitcoin blockchain.

Merged mining is used to send Bitcoin to sidechains, but the move back is different. If assets are moved from Drivechain to the Bitcoin blockchain the simplified payment verification method is used.

Drivechain improves scalability by reducing the risk of congestions as the main chain is not flooded with transactions. Anyone can create a new blockchain project with new digital assets on a sidechain. Sidechains can be used as Testnets for new Bitcoin technologies, and in case of failure, it will not impair the main chain. Any kind of cryptocurrency and consensus mechanism can be created on a sidechain with Drivechain. This feature could make Altcoins obsolete and propel Bitcoin into an existence as a truly global digital currency.

Bitcoin Rootstock

Rootstock (RSK) is such a project that will be built into a BTC-sidechain. It is a smart contract platform with a 2-way peg to Bitcoin that also utilizes merge-mining. RSK enables Turing-complete smart contract functionality, near instant payments and higher-scalability. RSK does not mint or has pre-mined coins, this means it has no speculative value and does not compete with Bitcoin. And with merge-mining, the same security as Bitcoin in terms of double-spend prevention and settlement finality can be achieved. Rootstock scales to 100 transactions per second without sacrificing decentralization or Security.


Bitcoin Financialisation and Ecosystem

Bakkt

„A Global Regulated Ecosystem for Digital Assets“

In case you've been living under the rock - Mr. Y is probably the best fundamental crypto analyst on the planet.

For the last 30 days he is working with only one task in mind - to asses Bitcoin for the upcoming year.

He shorted yesterday when we went long. I didn't listen as he is not a short term trader, but this new finding I am excited to read about.

Stay tuned. Will be shared here on Blockchain Whispers. Free.

Love,

D

We incurred 4.45% loss to the portfolio.

Portfolio before this trade: 1.013986

10% = 0.1014

- 44.57% = 0.0562

Current portfolio now 0.9688

This is good because in order for a challenge to be successful we can tolerate up to three losses over the 10 trade period. We are doing things right here and this is all part of the journey. You have to know what to do in losses and what to do in wins to trade properly.

8 more trades to go.

Blockchain Whispers traders did an analysis, the most likely play is this:
we go up from around this area to around 5000 (4500-5500)
Then we go down again... this time stronger - to around 29xx (Binance)... and then we go up.

So here you got two bitcoin signals... at levels of 5x to look for short and at levels of 29xx to look for long. This, however, has to be confirmed on lower timeframes, but it serves as an excellent guidance for you.

The whole play can take up to 4 months to develop. So middle or end of March 2019 would start the bull cycle. The only way we get bull momentum sooner is if we close a daily candle 6500+ - this changes everything and can bring the bull cycle to us earlier.

I usually don't like to share these long-term views, but I think this situation is calling for it and you have too much uncertainty in the field and this is absolutely neccessary.

**What to do with your alts?**
Well, definitely don't sell now, and definitely don't sell at 3k level.
The safest path is - if you want to get rid of them is to do when we are around 5k+ levels... prior to our drop to 3k.

The riskier approach is to expect 6500 broken.. in that case don't even sell it - as it goes up to the moon.

So really, if you need to sell, don't sell here, we should go up a bit, sell then.

Love,

D

Compounding: one of the greatest forces in the Universe - according to Albert Einstein.

It is basically we invest 1000 get 10%... we get 1100 ($100 profit)... next time we invest $1100 and get the same 10%... but now profit is $110.

This you will notice is smartly incorporated in our portfolio management in the Ten Trades Challenge program, and many other methods. Consider this ten trade challenge your fast-track course into pro trading.

This of course works only for winning traders who have an edge and more wins than loses.

Imagine you have 7 accurate 10% trades, and for ease of math, when stopped it's 10% loss...

Watch this...

1 becomes 1.1

1.1 becomes 1.21

1.21 becomes 1.331

Then we lose 10% it becomes 
1.1979

+ 10% = 1.31769
+ 10% = 1.4494
+ 10% = 1.5944

we lose two

1.29 + 10% = 1.42

42% gain to your overall portfolio...

Now compare it without compounding...

same trades...

0.1 + 0.1 - 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 -0.1 - 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1

40% gain.

Now this may not seem as much difference, but it is like a magnifying glass... the bigger the winning streak the bigger the exponential growth - thus increasing, magnifying your trading edge.

All you need to benefit from this free money is know your edge. If you are above 50-50 trader, you can benefit from it on the long run.

When losing (under your starting portfolio), don't be compounding :) Ensure you do have an edge.

Cheers!

Thank you all who put faith in us, me, even crypto at this stage... 

We began trading, and already have reached then 11% profit overnight.

It is not the goal, as this is hand-holding with portfolio management and everything, it's important what we do after the 10 trades.

For the rest of you who didn't join Premium yet, you know I'll continue even in these times to update you on the important moves and findings that concern you and crypto.

Because at the end of the day, the pure fact you are in crypto at this stage and still holding, is making you a winner!

Respect,

D

The premium membership is closed now for the duration of these ten trades as joining in the middle just wouldn't work. It might take weeks to months for the whole ten trade cycle to fulfill as it a bear market and we are taking only great odds trades expecting to get good odds at least. Cheers!

10 trades.

Hand holding.

Portfolio management.

Step by step.

The only way to earn in bear times is having an ability to short.

Blockchain Whispers Premium will stop accepting new members within like 12 hrs or so, when the first trade is posted, for the duration of the ten trades as I won't be able to manage your portfolio mid way, you have to follow the group tightly for this group effort to work and to help you recover the blows made by bear dips and if all goes smooth even nice bull-like gains.

These will NOT be impressive trades. Fast trades. Buy lowest wick sell highest peak... it will be confirmed, high odds, low risk trades.

It will be traded on BitMEX (https://www.bitmex.com/register/UxAh3y if you need an account that gives you 10% discount off their fees for 6 months!).

If you believe this journey will be successful, I invite you to join premium now by going to "Signals" page and taking care of the payment. Once done, the system will automatically enable you access to follow this ten trades journey.

Reasons to join now:

the Premium price is stable, and bitcoin is now low.

we are now not charging for any renewals until the ten trades period is over (and successful!).

We are doing the biggest hand holding I ever did... telling you how much to put in which trade, which buttons to click - even a monkey can do this one.

Plus you'll learn a proper-aggressive portfolio management.

To get started join now. If you choose to miss out, the doors close when the first trade is posted and you're out until this is over. This is designed to help you recover from bear times and have you experience neutral to even light-bull times through Blockchain Whispers trading edge.

Whatever you decide, I thank you for following and I give you a big hat down for being in crypto at this early stage.

Yours,

D

They - the 100mill+ investment delayed launch for a reason.

We expect red candles to continue.

Sorry guys, I don't have bullish news for bitcoin and crypto this year.

Good luck to all of us!

Your,

Blockchain Whispers!

If you are aware that the Bitcoin is a great long term investment...

If you are aware that having Blockchain Whispers traders gives you an edge that makes an average trader into trader with an edge in the whole race of crypto profits.

I am ready to provide you shelter in these bad times of crypto.

You can buy premium membership now at cheap btc price... and not worry about renewals, for as long as it takes... until the bull run begins.

I am with you. And this offer is active for all my premium members.

To begin, just click on this website on SIGNALS tab, and begin.

see you inside.

P.S. In this crazy times... we did signal XLM and Ripple. The only green coins. Imagine what we will do, together, when finally the patience starts paying dividends!

This is a historic moment, as Bitcoin was always the king, followed by every alt in the game.

Now for the first time, Ripple and XLM are behaving completely separately from BTC.

There is no confirmed reversal yet, or anything... and this dip can go further down or reverse from now - a no trade zone.

This is very tough moment for Bitcoin holders, bull-dreamers, us ordinary guys planning to be making nice bucks from crypto.

This thing extends and the only thing on the horizon is Bakkt.

That is the negative news.

The positive is: in order for a PROPER bullrun to begin, a strong, badass, bullrun... this had to happen.

These red dildos are discouraging even the strongest believers, however, what we speculate about is only a small timeframe in 10 year btc cycle.

Bitcoin had these cycles, bitcoin got up after every single one of them stronger and bigger.

Positive things: 1) Bakkt on 12th Dec 2) End of year and grand tax evasion scheme by purchasing bitcoins

Negative things... none except the hash reduced from bitcoin (already ongoing and paying the price for it) and institutions willing to enter bakkt at best price possible (although they are happy with 6k also).

In an event of a bull momentum starting, it will go up, and break 5800, close above, break 6400 and close above... that will be a confirmation.

Cheers!

Your fellow believer

D

I wanted to write this article yesterday, but then I reminded myself it's 2AM, and time to go to sleep.

So as I was trying to fall asleep, I was thinking about how to present it to you.

There are 4 key levels of accuracy defined by trading style / decision source that limit your trading success.

Level 1: The Least Accurate Crypto Trading Signals - Listening To The Public

The odds of your Bitcoin Signals turning success: 1 in 15

The odds of your Altcoin Signals turning a success: 1 in 8

The public is 90% wrong, and when they are wrong, public cuts losses late and wins early. Remember this. 

The public is so inaccurate that CNBC was 'famous' for a while for being a 95% inaccurate, and very good medium for counter-trading. that 95% gives you approximate odds public has versus the pros.

Listening to public forums is worse than...

Level 2: Almost As Bad Crypto Trading Signals - Listening To Your Gut

The odds of your Bitcoin signals turning a success: 1 in 10

The odds of your altcoin signals turning a success: 1 in 4

Yes, there is the sixth sense, and all that, but for the matter of practical discussion, let's admit it - you are not a Yogi, and you are not so fine-tuned with your gut... so basically what you do is gamble. The problem with that is, your odds are not even 50-50, because if you leverage bitcoin, or use any kind of stop loss - very frequently you are caught by a stop hunt, that just triggers your stop and then goes into the right direction - even the one you suspected as right. Thus your odds are not a coin flip 50% up and 50% down. It's way worse.

For non-leveraged alts, the odds are significantly better, still far from beneficial for you.

Level 3:  Okay altcoin signals, and still not tradeable Bitcoin signals - Listening to public TA

The odds of your Bitcoin signals turning a success: 1 in 7

The odds of your altcoin signals turning a success: 2 in 5

The major problem with free, public TAs is what we witnessed at Blockchain Whispers when we reached major following, the perfect signal turned the opposite direction. Also, public TA is just a bit more select group of people that have the same public knowledge but just dig a bit deeper... CNBC was 95% inaccurate... public TAs are around 70% inaccurate.

They use the same tools, see the same things, 20 years ago TA was a revolution, an edge... now it's a method to fool masses who still base trades on RSI, FIB and MACD.

Level 4: Professionals

Odds of your bitcoin signals turning a success: 6 in 10, 7 in 10, 8 in 10 (world class) and 9 in 10 (very rare cases).

The odds of your altcoin signals turning a success: 7 in 10, 8 in 10 and 9 in 10 (very frequent in bitcoin favorable times)

Most of the professionals earning a good living trading are at around 7 out of 10 accuracy, and with proper portfolio management, they can work, get hired or even trade for themselves all day long. Of course professional crypto traders are a new breed, and most struggling are coming from stocks, and most accurate that I saw are coming from forex background.

Still, the adjusting even from forex is needed. Crypto is a body within itself.

Now remember this, NO professional trader, can have 10/10 accuracy for a long time. It is impossible. The limitations of historic predictions are around 8 out of 10 and those 9/10 that I mentioned are a stretch... either a good momentum, or a big chunk of luck. 8 out of ten or 8.5/10 is where top pros reside.

At Blockchain Whispers I am looking for 8+ out of 10 traders. I have one that is 9 out of 10 but I still believe it is just a period of statistical anomaly.

Unfortunately, the most accurate bitcoin traders are:

Level 5: The Insiders
The odds of your Bitcoin signals turning a success: 19 in 20
The odds of your altcoin signals turning a success: 48 in 50 (volatile btc times) and 49 in 50 (stable btc times)

Owning an exchange, seeing the stops, liquidation points, orders... and in some cases (BitMEX) allowing you to block the trading of others when you see fit (system overload example Bitmex uses often)... beats TA, FA, and pretty much anything else.

Obviously Bitmex has the highest insider edge, and is pushing upwards that 19 out of 20... while other exchanges, whale groups, etc are specialized either for longer timeframes, or concentrated micro moves.

Imagine for example a factor many traders take into account - Bitfinex shorts vs longs... Bitfinex prints tether, they made the whole operation for controling the outcome... why don't you think they can't put their own 'longs' or 'shorts' and fool that figure?

And what happens in rare cases when those insiders fail?

Sometimes, like the recent example, they refuse to lose - so we saw a big discrepancy between Binance price and Bitmex price, with coinbase being one group Bitfinex another...

And now you think you can't win?